Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Blues Clues

Perhaps the most mentioned trade partner in the Ryan Miller rumors is the St. Louis Blues. With the deadline just a week away, it is a good time for a fan like me to lay his cards on the table. What would I consider good value for Mr. Miller?

Of course, it's not easy to analyze trades that haven't happened yet because there are so many factors involved. In this case, we would need to consider 2 main issues. First, would Ryan Miller be a rental for the Blues or sign a new contract with them? Obviously the return increases if the latter is likely the case. Second, will (and how much) salary would the Blues want the Sabres to take back (and/or retain)?

Given the uncertainties in these two areas (and many others), it is highly unlikely that I will be able to predict a potential trade between the Blues and Sabres with great precision. Nevertheless, I do think it's possible to throw out a scenario that serves as a standard by which the actual trade (if it happens) could be graded.

Blues get Ryan Miller (50% salary retained for cap reasons)
Sabres get Jaroslav Halak, Dmitrij Jaskin, and a conditional 1st

I consider a trade like this to be the most likely scenario. I think Halak is part and parcel in any Miller deal. The prospect involved could, of course, vary. It could be Jaskin, Rattie, or goalie Jake Allen. Which one depends on the strong opinions of people who often keep their strong opinions to themselves on purpose. The first could be conditioned upon how far the Blues make it in the playoffs with Miller or whether or not Miller re-signs.

Here are some other returns with a 1 word reaction:

Halak & 2 of the following prospects (Rattie, Jaskin, Allen, Carrier):

Halak & 1 of those prospects and a pick that ends up a 1st:

Halak & 1 of Rattie/Jaskin and a pick that ends up a 2nd or 3rd: 

Halak & 1 of Allen/Carrier and a pick that ends up a 2nd or 3rd:

Halak & a lesser prospect and a 1st:

Halak & a lesser prospect and a 2nd or 3rd:

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